Publication

A  novel  approach  to  technical  risk  identification  and  analysis  for  major  weapons  systems acquisitions  is   proposed.   It   is   informed   by   the   limitations   of   the   current   risk   matrix.   The   approach   is   to   examine   representations   of   the   evolving   system   design   to   locate   sources   of   complexity   and   then   inform   the   program   manager   as   he/she   makes   technical   choices   among   competing   alternatives.   Some   of   the   alternatives  will  create  more  complexity  and  therefore  more  risk.  The  PM  will  then  be  able  to  balance   risk   and   reward   at   the   point   of   decision-­‐making,   deciding   to   engage   risk   at   that   moment   by   his/her   choices.  In  addition,  we  propose  to  rate  or  score  the  contractor  +  government  organizations'  abilities  to   master  the  complexity  they  have  chosen,  so  that  the  PM  will  know  whether  there  is  a  match  of  product   complexity  with  organizational  capability.

Future  work  will  add  dimensions  of  interconnections  and  interdependencies  among  risks,  timing,  delay,   order  of  risks,  and  uncertainty.