Foundations for a Model-Based Portfolio Analysis Capability for the Joint Program Executive Office for Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense (JPEO-CBRND)
Enterprises and System of Systems
Dr. Daniel DeLaurentis
Dr. Cesare Guariniello
BACKGROUND: This research identifies the needs of JPEO-CBRND towards the establishment and utilization of a portfolio analysis capability. This capability would support decisions for the most advantageous investments across the whole enterprise. The work is articulate in two phases: a first one of knowledge discovery, for the team to get acquainted with the needs of JPEO-CBRND, and the second one to develop a prototype computational tool for enterprise decision-making.
Both phases will leverage previous experience, including the successful SERC workshop on Modular Open Systems Approach (MOSA) in 2017, the SERC-developed System of Systems Analytic Workbench (AWB), with its family of analysis and synthesis tools that have direct relevance to the JPEO-CBRND need for enterprise portfolio analysis. In particular, the Robust Portfolio Optimization (RPO) capability in the AWB will serve as a baseline for the desired capability that allows decision-makers to express their objectives (performance and risk tolerance) and constraints in the RPO engine and interpreting the resulting Pareto front of portfolios that balance risk and performance. A second area of SERC work that has relevance for the Phase II of this research task is the work led by Dr. Mark Blackburn in “Transforming Systems Engineering through Model Based Systems Engineering” under the SERC’s Digital Engineering thrust under SEMT theme. Our execution of this task is predicated on understanding the scope and types of information received from the knowledge elicitation phase, to inform an appropriate method of generating the heuristically driven decision-making framework.
OBJECTIVES: We propose two phases of research to attain the above research goals. In Phase 1, we will map out the essential needs and influence mechanisms of the JPEO-CBRND via a requirements and status-quo elicitation. Furthermore, our Phase I knowledge discovery efforts will include survey of the extant methods, processes, tools (MPTs) in the SERC ecosystem that may apply. Considerations will emphasize maturity of the MPTs and the degree to which they support a digital engineering foundation for the enterprise portfolio. Phase II is a synthesis phase in which we will apply knowledge acquired in Phase I to prototype computational tool that applies the most appropriate methods and tools to identified demonstration problems of most relevance (and developed jointly with) the JPEO-CBRND team. We detail our approach and its correspondence to the research needs in the following subsections.
PHASE I –REQUIREMENTS ELICITATION AND KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY
This phase will accomplish:
- A 1.5 day workshop with JPEO to understand their needs, current operational context, requirements for an enterprise architecture and portfolio analysis across their enterprise, and explore challenges, opportunities and recommended courses of action.
- A collection and description of the most appropriate set of prior tools, knowledge and experience the SERC has accumulated as a basis of understanding for the JPEO team
- The construction of vignettes of two mission threads of significance to JPEO and with translation to archetypical portfolio analysis problems collaboratively with the JPEO. The research team shall turn these transformed formulations into demonstration problems to focus further research over the course of the project period.
PHASE II –DEVELOPMENT OF PROTOTYPE COMPUTATIONAL TOOL
This phase will accomplish:
- The construction of a prototype computational tool that applies the most appropriate methods and tools to the demonstration problems derived from the vignettes, applying a top-down and bottoms-up approach:
- Develop a top-level enterprise architecture for JPEO – apply the workshop outcomes and the two identified mission threads to verify and validate this architecture.
- Develop a bottoms-up characterization of the current portfolio; the en-route portfolio (in various stages of acquisition); and currently in various stages of research. Isolate the portfolio to focus only on the relevant systems and capabilities for expediency. Use this understanding to develop an information model and would form the underpinning for the enterprise architecture and its use for analysis and reasoning.
- The development of recommended governance processes and decision-making framework for analysis and resource allocation most appropriate for JPEO.